20% Drop or 50% Rally Ahead?

“Every little bounce we get is an easy short until conditions change,” one X user stated.

Cardano’s ADA has followed the overall bearish environment of the crypto market and plummeted by approximately 22% over the past month.

Analysts are now divided, with some envisioning the price charting additional losses in the short term, while others think a major resurgence could be on the way.

More Pain Ahead?

As of this writing, ADA trades at around $0.36 (per CoinGecko’s data) and is far below the local peak above $1 witnessed earlier this year. Meanwhile, its market capitalization slipped under $13.5 billion, further distancing the asset from crypto’s top 10 club.

The renowned analyst Ali Martinez observed the asset’s recent performance and assumed that the valuation may continue sliding toward the $0.29 support zone. Such a plunge would represent a 20% decline from the current levels.

Prior to that, Martinez argued that ADA’s “SuperTrend” had flipped bearish, reminding that the last time this happened, the price collapsed by 80%.

X user Node also predicted a further downside for Cardano’s native token. The market participant revealed they have “found solace” in shorting ADA, thus softening the impact of the potential bear market.

“Every little bounce we get is an easy short (on basically anything) until conditions change,” they added.

The Chances of a Rally

Despite the pullback, those forecasting that ADA can surge substantially in the near future are just as vocal. X user Marzell claimed the asset has shown early signs of a rebound, with bullish RSI/MACD divergence. Nonetheless, he noted that the price remains below the 50- and 100-day MAs, suggesting a move toward $0.50 would depend heavily on a breakout from current territory.

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Meanwhile, important metrics hint that the token could be gearing up for a pump. ADA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30, which indicates oversold territory and could be followed by a rally.

The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and is often used by traders to spot possible trend reversals. As mentioned above, readings below 30 are considered bullish for the price, whereas readings above 70 warn of a potential correction.

ADA’s exchange netflows are also worth observing. Over the past several months, outflows have significantly outpaced inflows, indicating that investors have been moving from centralized platforms to self-custody methods. This, in turn, reduces the immediate selling pressure.