Prediction market activity jumps 2,800% as geopolitical bets dominate

Prediction market usage hit record levels in March, supported by improved accessibility and favourable regulatory developments amid rising interest in political and geopolitical event contracts.

According to a report published by TRM Labs, the prediction market sector has expanded rapidly as Google Finance integrations and increased visibility of live odds across mainstream media.

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events by buying and selling contracts tied to real-world developments.

These markets are now being “increasingly used as real-time indicators of geopolitical and macroeconomic events,” TRM Labs said, adding that their growth has been supported by improved accessibility, evolving regulatory clarity, and integration with mainstream platforms.

Data from Dune Analytics shows that the total number of transactions hit over 191 million in March so far, marking an increase of more than 2,800% from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, monthly notional trading volume stood at roughly $23.9 billion in March, up from $1.9 billion at the same time last year, but still below January’s all-time high by about 12%.

Monthly unique wallets also tripled to around 840,000 by February 2026, a trend that reflects what TRM described as “a broad expansion of the participant base,” rather than just larger bets from existing users.

Much of this activity is being driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic developments, according to TRM Labs, which now dominate trading volumes across platforms.

“Crypto-native topics, while prevalent, now represent a smaller share of overall activity,” the report added.

On Polymarket, the highest-volume contracts as of Monday were centered on U.S. political outcomes, including party nominations for the 2028 presidential race, and geopolitical questions such as whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office through year-end.

Growth in the sector has been accompanied by increased scrutiny, with Kalshi and Polymarket facing concerns tied to insider trading and compliance with state gambling laws.

Several U.S. states have launched enforcement actions, arguing that certain event-based contracts resemble unlicensed betting products under local regulations.

How platforms navigate these regulatory challenges and concerns around market integrity will shape the future growth of the sector, according to TRM Labs.

Polymarket and Kalshi have already announced measures to introduce trading guardrails and strengthen market integrity, but the broader regulatory outlook remains unresolved for now.