CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns the Bitcoin bear market could extend into early 2027, based on on-chain PnL data.
Summary
- Ki Young Ju cited CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, which shows investor profitability typically falls for 18 months after profit-taking cascades begin.
- The trend began in October 2025, placing a potential bear market bottom in early 2027 based on historical patterns.
- A true reversal requires unrealized profits to rise while realized profits fall simultaneously, a signal that has not yet appeared.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X this week warning that Bitcoin’s current downturn mirrors the extended bear cycles of 2014, 2018, and 2022, and may not resolve until early 2027.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months,” Ju wrote. “Since the trend change started in October 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet.”
What the PnL Index shows
Ju’s analysis is grounded in CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, a 365-day moving average that tracks investor profitability cycles. The indicator peaked in late 2025 in a pattern closely matching the tops recorded before the prolonged bear phases of 2014, 2018, and 2022. Each of those periods saw steep sustained declines once the signal rolled over from its peak.
Bitcoin was trading near $73,000 at the time of the post, down roughly 30% from its 2025 highs, amid rising macroeconomic pressure from elevated US Treasury yields and broader risk-off sentiment across markets. As crypto.news reported, bearish social commentary on Bitcoin hit its highest level in 2026 earlier in April as spot demand weakened.
The reversal signal Ju describes requires a specific combination that has not yet materialised: unrealized profit margins must begin rising while realised profits fall simultaneously, indicating that selling pressure is exhausting itself and buyers are regaining control. Until that pattern appears, Ju views the bear case as intact.
Not all analysts share the extended timeline. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck told CNBC earlier this year that Bitcoin may be forming a cycle bottom, pointing to options market stabilisation and slowing long-term holder selling as early constructive signs. Coinbase noted in its April 2026 monthly report that price support may emerge between May and June, potentially setting up a stronger third quarter.
How Bitcoin recovers from this level
For a sustained recovery, Ju flagged two critical demand drivers: renewed inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased activity from over-the-counter institutional desks, both of which have slowed in recent months. ETF flows have remained positive but at a normalised pace relative to the surge seen in early 2025.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that capital inflows into Bitcoin continue to rise, but market capitalisation has not responded proportionally. That divergence, where money enters the market but prices stagnate or decline, is the defining signature of a bear market in Ju’s framework.
Bitcoin’s current price is consolidating near the $73,000 level, with CoinGlass identifying $74,200 and $74,500 as key resistance zones where large sell orders are clustered. The Clarity Act’s potential passage remains one of the most cited institutional catalysts that analysts believe could shift sentiment, though Ju’s PnL model operates independently of policy timelines.
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