Will Pi Network price hit a ATL as a risky pattern forms?

Pi Network price has recovered from its recent record low, but a developing bearish continuation pattern and another wave of token unlocks have kept the risk of a fresh all-time low firmly in focus.

According to crypto.news data, Pi Network (PI) traded near $0.128 on June 12 after rebounding from its June 6 low around $0.119. The token gained roughly 1.8% over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin climbed more than 2% and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $2.18 trillion.

Improved risk appetite followed reports that President Donald Trump halted planned U.S. airstrikes against Iran, while traders also reacted to SpaceX’s public market debut and its reported Bitcoin holdings.

June 18 has emerged as the next major catalyst for the ecosystem. The Pi Core Team has required all Mainnet node operators to complete the Protocol 25 upgrade by that date, warning that nodes that fail to upgrade may be disconnected from the network.

The upgrade introduces compatibility with Stellar Core V20 and lays the groundwork for Soroban smart contracts, a development many holders view as a step toward DeFi and tokenization use cases within the Pi ecosystem.

Exchange flows have started to improve despite the weak price trend. Recent wallet data showed 579,018 PI leaving tracked centralized exchanges against inflows of 319,304 PI, resulting in net outflows of 259,714 tokens.

Exchange balances stood at roughly 546.4 million PI, while most major trading venues, including OKX, Bitget, MEXC, Gate.io, LBank, and Kraken, recorded negative daily flows.

Reduced exchange balances can ease immediate selling pressure, although the effect remains limited by the network’s unlock schedule.

Fresh supply continues to enter circulation at a rapid pace. Pi unlock data shows that approximately 144.45 million PI tokens will be released over the next 30 days, representing about 2.33% of locked supply. Average daily unlocks stand near 4.8 million tokens, while June 12 alone is scheduled to see more than 14.8 million PI unlocked, the largest single-day release during the period.

Thin liquidity has amplified the impact of those releases. Daily trading activity remains relatively modest compared with the size of incoming supply, leaving the token vulnerable to selling from early miners and users completing KYC verification and Mainnet migration.

Previous unlock waves coincided with accelerated declines as newly available tokens entered exchange wallets.

Descending triangle keeps pressure on key support

The four-hour chart shows PI forming an inverse cup-and-handle pattern after its recovery from the June 6 low near $0.119. Price climbed toward $0.132 before losing momentum and carving out a downward-sloping handle beneath resistance. The structure places key support between $0.124 and $0.125.

A breakdown below that zone would confirm the bearish continuation pattern and expose the measured target near $0.116. Such a move would place the June all-time low back under pressure and could open the door to another leg lower if sellers regain control.

The daily chart presents a similar picture. PI remains trapped beneath a descending trendline that has controlled price action since early May. The token also continues to trade below its Supertrend resistance near $0.146, while a former support area around $0.130 has turned into overhead resistance.

Momentum indicators have yet to deliver a convincing bullish reversal. The MACD remains below the zero line despite some improvement in histogram readings, while price continues to print a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Stochastic RSI on the four-hour timeframe has climbed into overbought territory, raising the possibility of another short-term pullback.

Token unlocks and macro risks threaten the recovery

Macro conditions remain another source of uncertainty. Pi’s latest rebound arrived alongside a recovery in Bitcoin and risk assets, but any reversal in crypto sentiment could quickly revive selling pressure across smaller-cap tokens.

Large altcoins continue to trade near critical support levels, and leveraged crypto markets remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

For Pi Network, bulls must reclaim $0.130 and then break above the descending trendline near $0.145 to invalidate the current bearish structure. A successful breakout would also put the Supertrend resistance at risk and improve the odds of a move toward $0.18.

Until then, the combination of persistent token unlocks, weak long-term trend structure, and a developing bearish pattern leaves PI vulnerable to another breakdown.

A decisive move below $0.124 would increase the probability of a retest of $0.119 and could open the door to a fresh all-time low below the June bottom.