Gibraltar Launches the World’s First Dedicated Prediction-Market Regulatory Regime

A bespoke regime that splits from the European mainstream

Prediction Market Regulations 2026 by the Ministry for Justice, Trade and Industry and came into force today, exempting prediction-market operators from certain provisions of the territory’s Gambling Act 2025 and placing them under a tailored set of rules instead. Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, called it “a bespoke regulatory regime for prediction markets, the first dedicated framework of its kind anywhere in the world.”

The 24-page instrument takes what the government describes as an “activity-based and risk-based approach.” Under the rules, every event contract must be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority, and each must be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation, and consistent with the regulatory objectives.” An independent supervisory panel will oversee the framework, and operators must maintain their own systems to prevent market abuse. “The focus is not on labels,” Feetham said, “but on ensuring that the chosen framework is capable of effective supervision and robust standards of market integrity, transparency, participant protection and financial crime prevention.”

ADI Predictstreet – the official prediction-market partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, built on the ADI Chain blockchain run by Abu Dhabi’s ADI Foundation – was already licensed in Gibraltar as a betting intermediary on March 26, under the territory’s previous 2005 gambling law. The second product to fall under the new regime, called Wire Markets, is the platform of California-based WagerWire: it was approved in principle in June and is targeting a launch around the start of the international club football season in August. WagerWire co-founder Travis Geiger called the framework “a landmark moment for the prediction market industry,” saying it “gives operators the clarity they need to build for the long term.”

Gibraltar’s first prediction-market license in March was a distinct milestone from today’s framework: the former authorized a single operator under existing law, while the latter creates a dedicated regime for the sector. This new development further widens the gap with the rest of Europe. Earlier this month, the EU’s markets watchdog, ESMA, reminded firms that event contracts meeting the definition of financial instruments are already barred from retail sale under existing binary-options rules. In June, nine national regulators issued a joint statement warning operators over consumer-protection risks, and the Netherlands had already ordered Polymarket to cease serving its market.

Gibraltar already derives roughly a quarter of its GDP from gambling-associated services. With the United Kingdom – its core market – raising its Remote Gaming Duty to 40%, diversifying into a new, fast-growing vertical is a way to offset that pressure on the operators hosted by the territory. Regulated prediction-market trading volume continues to climb steeply, with combined monthly volume across the leading platforms reaching $44.8 billion in June. Whether Gibraltar’s first-mover framework becomes a template or an exception remains to be seen.