Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin futures open interest hit $49.82 billion on July 22, led by Binance’s $9.24 billion share.
- Deribit calls outnumber puts 65.88% to 34.12%, showing traders favor higher bitcoin prices through 2026.
- Binance max pain data points to $72,000 by late September, the highest projection among major exchanges.
Bitcoin traded at $65,971 per coin at 11:45 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, according to market data. That price sits in the middle of a derivatives market that has grown increasingly split between institutional confidence and retail caution.
Futures Open Interest Spreads Across a Dozen Venues
Total bitcoin futures open interest across tracked exchanges reached 755,780 BTC, worth $49.82 billion, Coinglass data shows. That figure slipped 4.26% over 24 hours even as it ticked up 0.11% in the most recent hour, a sign traders are trimming positions gradually rather than rushing for the exits.
Binance holds the largest share at 140,250 BTC, or $9.24 billion, representing 18.55% of the market. CME ranks second in dollar terms among major venues at 105,750 BTC, or $6.97 billion, good for a 13.98% share. Notably, CME open interest climbed 1.80% over the past day while nearly every other exchange declined, a divergence that points to institutional traders adding exposure while other venues pulled back.
MEXC saw open interest fall 9.66% in 24 hours to 91,350 BTC. Gate dropped even harder, down 12.73% to 63,500 BTC. Bybit fell 6.71% and OKX slid 6.32%. Smaller venues, including Bitunix, Bitget, and BingX rounded out the rankings, with BingX actually gaining 4.75% on the day despite its smaller $896.59 million footprint.
Options Traders Lean Bullish on Deribit
The options side of the market shows an even clearer directional bet. On Deribit, the dominant venue for bitcoin options, open interest in calls stood at 336,331.81 BTC against 174,211.44 BTC in puts, a 65.88% to 34.12% split favoring bullish positioning. Daily volume told a similar story, with calls outpacing puts 56.35% to 43.65%.
The largest single position on Deribit was the July 31 expiry $72,000 call, holding 26,265.5 BTC of open interest, followed closely by the $70,000 call for the same date at 25,328.2 BTC. Traders also loaded up on the December 25 expiry $80,000 call at 7,602.2 BTC, showing conviction stretches well beyond the near-term.
Max Pain Levels Diverge Across Venues
Max pain, the price point at which the most options contracts expire worthless, varies notably by exchange. On OKX, near-term max pain sits around $66,000, but the curve climbs toward $69,500 for contracts expiring in late September before easing back. Deribit shows a similar pattern, with max pain rising from roughly $65,000 today to a peak near $69,500 by September and holding through December, then drifting down toward $60,000 for contracts expiring in mid-2027.
Binance tells the boldest version of that story. Max pain there jumps from about $66,000 currently to $72,000 by late September, the highest peak among the three exchanges, before falling sharply to $61,500 by March 2026 as later-dated contracts thin out.
CME Options Add an Institutional Layer
CME’s bitcoin options open interest, distinct from its futures book, has climbed from a low near $10 million in June to roughly $50 million to $60 million currently, according to CryptoQuant data stacked by position. Puts have consistently outweighed calls in dollar terms across most of the past year, though the gap has narrowed as bitcoin’s price recovered from its February lows near $60,000.
Viewed by expiration, CME options open interest concentrated heavily in contracts expiring within one to three months through most of 2025, a pattern that has repeated into the current cycle as the July 2026 expiry approaches.
Bitfinex Analysts Flag a Thin Rally
Market strategists and analysts from Bitfinex flagged a different current beneath the price action in a Tuesday research note shared with Bitcoin.com News. The team found little evidence of aggressive new spot buying, arguing the recovery has been driven mostly by derivatives positioning and a lack of sellers rather than fresh capital entering the market. Thirty-day bitcoin trading volumes are running at just 62% of the annual average, the analysts said, while CME bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, leaving the market more exposed to sharp swings.
Selling pressure has also eased. Strategy has gone two straight weeks without buying or selling bitcoin, with holdings unchanged at 843,775 BTC, and long-term holder selling has largely faded. Bitfinex analysts put it plainly: “This is an absence of selling, not a resumption of buying.” The options market backs up that read. The put to call ratio has fallen to 0.56, a multi-month low, which the Bitfinex team said reflects fading downside bets rather than a wave of new spot demand.
Capital rotation remains narrow too. Spot Ethereum ETFs drew $105.4 million last week compared with $75.7 million for spot bitcoin ETFs, though broader altcoin participation stayed muted. The next test is macro. Bitcoin has kept climbing even as Treasury yields firmed, a pattern the analysts said points to a crypto-driven move rather than a bet on looser policy, with next week’s Federal Reserve decision shaping up as the key catalyst.
What It Means for the Market
The split between institutional CME activity, which grew even as retail exchanges retreated, and the heavy call skew on Deribit suggests professional traders and larger players are positioning for upside while smaller platforms see position trimming. Retail-heavy venues losing open interest while CME gains it is a pattern worth watching heading into the fourth quarter, especially with max pain levels across three major exchanges all pointing toward higher prices by September.
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