Is This a Bull Trap?

Selling pressure from miners, ETF holders, and Strategy is building as BTC fights for $64K.

After several days of trading mostly sideways, or even charting new losses, bitcoin’s price finally headed in the opposite direction at the start of the new business week, topping $64,500 for the first time in 7-8 days.

However, this rather minor rally has been jeopardized long before it had the opportunity to grow into something more spectacular, as the selling pressure has mounted on several fronts. There’s also a dark horse outside the on-chain data, showing another threat.

Bull Trap in the Making?

Starting with miners, popular analyst Ali Martinez outlined the growing concern within the community about the increasing selling pressure. The backbone of the Bitcoin network has been taking profits lately as BTC rose to $64,600 earlier. Data from CryptoQuant shows that they have disposed of 1,648 BTC over the past ten days or so, which, according to the analyst, adds “roughly $106 million in potential selling pressure.”

Second, he listed the spot Bitcoin ETFs. As recently reported, investors gaining exposure to BTC through these financial vehicles withdrew almost $400 million worth of the cryptocurrency last week, in stark contrast to the over $850 million in net inflows the previous week.

Third, Martinez referred to Strategy’s recent behavior. The company has not only paused its BTC purchases indefinitely, but it has also made multiple sales over the past few months. Its total holdings have declined by more than 3,300 in just weeks.

The analyst noted that a worrisome portion of BTC’s supply has hit exchanges recently, as their balances have increased by 24,700 units over the past ten days. This means that $1.6 billion worth of BTC has increased the potential sell-side liquidity.

Lastly, he outlined the Coinbase Premium metric, which continues to be in the negative for well over three months now. Such a reading means that “BTC is trading cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, signaling weaker US demand or active selling from US-based participants.”

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Consequently, Martinez believes BTC’s rally toward $64,600 won’t last long and brought up the next potential support zones that could halt a potential nosedive. The first is located between $63,110 and $61,850, where more than two million BTC were previously transacted, and makes it a notable support. If it breaks, though, Martinez warned that the next one could be all the way down at $54,300.

The Dark Horse

There’s no need to sugarcoat this – it’s the war in the Middle East and the volatile developments. Whenever something big happens, it tends to impact the crypto market. However, there have been conflicting announcements and reports from both sides (as usual) lately.

For instance, reports claimed yesterday that the US and Iran had extended their ceasefire on the day it was supposed to expire. Meanwhile, Trump reportedly threatened to bomb Oman, which is a US ally.

More recent information on the matter came from the POTUS himself, who just claimed that there are no ongoing or scheduled peace talks between the two. Moreover, he added that the Naval Blockade remains in full force, while the Strait of Hormuz, which he also said is now a US territory, is “open and operating.”

For now, BTC remains calm around $64,000, but these developments could quickly increase the volatility.