Here’s Why Analysts Say This Rally Is Different

The rally came despite August’s historically weak track record for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke higher last week, ending a multi-month range and closing near $77,700. The move followed a $62,750 weekly low, marking a nearly 24% rise as the leading cryptocurrency topped $71,000 on August 20.

The rally came despite August’s historically weak performance for Bitcoin, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report. The report noted that August has typically delivered negative median returns, making last week’s move a notable shift from the month’s historical pattern.

Liquidity and ETF Demand Strengthen Bitcoin’s Breakout

A key catalyst was the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of its bond buyback program. The announcement triggered a liquidity response, while $3 billion in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over two days, marking the largest short-side wipeout on record.

Long liquidations remained limited, while futures open interest rose to $51 billion. That combination suggests fresh positions entered the market rather than the rally coming only from traders closing leverage.

Beyond the derivatives market, spot demand provided another source of support. U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted about $1.92 billion in weekly net inflows, their strongest weekly total since October 2025. That lifted assets under management above $96 billion.

Corporate activity, however, remained subdued. Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder, reported no BTC purchases or sales in its filing. The pause came after a period of activity and left its average acquisition price at around $75,385, below the market price.  With BTC now above that level, the company has moved from a $9.5 billion paper loss to a $4.7 billion paper profit.

Mixed Signals Emerge Beneath the Breakout

Bitfinex analysts said Strategy could influence whether Bitcoin maintains the breakout because the company stopped selling shortly before BTC moved beyond its summer range. The shift removes one source of supply pressure that had been present during the consolidation.

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Meanwhile, on-chain activity presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin transfer volumes remain close to eight-year lows, suggesting network activity has not matched the price move. At the same time, short-term holders with cost bases near $64,500 and $73,500 have moved into profit.

Those holders could help turn previous resistance into support if the breakout holds. Bitfinex identified thin supply between current prices and a heavier concentration around $84,000 to $85,000, creating a potential next hurdle.

The broader liquidity backdrop also supports this interpretation. Mortgage rates fell for a second week while housing activity remained weak. Builders kept cutting prices as housing starts fell, suggesting easier financial conditions may reach asset markets before the wider economy.