Key Takeaways
- XRP trades near $1.28, roughly 64.6% below its $3.65 high and down about 51% over 12 months.
- Upbit, Binance and Coinbase saw combined XRP net outflows of about $81.8 million.
- Ripple’s Swell opens this week in New York, with no Blackrock XRP deal or filing confirmed.
The Bear Number
XRP is changing hands at 1.28 on Monday, which puts it about 64% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025. The token is down roughly 17% over the past 30 days and about 51% over the past year. One analyst pointed out that, despite the drawdown, XRP is still 2.6x above where the 2024 breakout started.
The weakness is not unique to XRP as bitcoin too has been stuck around $80,000 after a weekend slide to $79,000 and large-cap altcoins have followed it lower.
The Bullish Number
Technical traders are pointing to the monthly relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge where low readings suggest an asset is oversold. In this regard, one pundit noted that XRP’s monthly RSI is approaching historical oversold territory last seen at major cycle turning points over the past 13 years, and laid out long-range targets of $3.50, $7 and $14.
Exchange flows add a quieter bullish wrinkle as data shared on Sunday showed net outflows from Upbit of $42.49 million, Binance of $25.22 million and Coinbase of $14.13 million.
Institutional demand also flickered back with spot XRP ETFs pulling in $4.26 million last week, flipping back to inflows after their first weekly outflow in 13 weeks. Network usage is holding up too, with XRP wallets hitting a record 8.24 million earlier this month.
The Rumor Mill
Over the weekend, posts claimed Blackrock had signed a $6.5 trillion XRP tokenization deal and that $650 trillion in real estate was about to move onto the XRP Ledger. However, XRP backers pushed back hard, noting that there was no such announcement or filing.
The real Ripple news was smaller but verifiable, as last week the company teamed with Arf to bring RLUSD lending to the XRP ledger. At the same time, Nasdaq-listed Evernorth moved to register 5.2 million shares as it plans more XRP purchases.
What Swell Can and Can’t Do
All of these developments are landing days before Ripple’s flagship conference, Swell, which kicks off this week in New York with more than 100 speakers expected. XRP’s branding has already covered the 42nd Street subway station, and many expect the event to bring forth partnership announcements.
For traders, the levels to watch this week are quite straightforward:
- 1.05–1.15: The support zone flagged by analysts if selling continues.
- $1.40: The first level bulls need to reclaim to call a bottom.
- $2.80: Standard Chartered’s revised year-end target, still more than 115% away.
If Swell delivers concrete bank or tokenization deals, the outflow data suggests some holders could be positioned well.
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