Is BTC’s Consolidation Phase Nearing Its End?

Bitcoin has continued consolidating below the critical $108K resistance range, signaling a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Nevertheless, the price is likely to initiate a fresh rally once the current corrective consolidation phase concludes.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase after failing to reclaim the key $108K resistance zone. This price behavior suggests that profit-taking is occurring at this crucial level, increasing selling pressure and triggering a mild retracement. However, Bitcoin still exhibits strong bullish momentum, evidenced by its recent impulsive moves toward this resistance.

As such, once the ongoing consolidation ends, a renewed bullish surge is expected. The price may retrace further toward the key $98K–$100K support range, where new demand is likely to enter and fuel the next rally. This could pave the way for a fresh attempt at a new all-time high in the mid-term.

The 4-Hour Chart

In the 4-hour timeframe, BTC continues to trade within a short-term ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows—an indication of a bullish structure. The recent consolidation has led to a pullback toward the channel’s lower boundary at $100K, a major psychological support level.

If this support holds, a rapid rebound toward the $109K ATH appears likely. However, if the price breaks below the channel, the consolidation could extend further, with a decline toward the $98K support range becoming the probable scenario.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on how the price behaves around the ascending channel’s lower boundary.

On-chain Analysis

Bitcoin’s interaction with the Realized Price of long-term holders’ UTXOs has historically served as a reliable indicator of market direction, as it reflects the average acquisition cost of these key investors. This metric often acts as a dynamic support or resistance level.

Currently, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the Realized Price of the 3–6 month holder cohort, suggesting that these important market participants are now in overall profit. This development is typically seen as a bullish signal.

However, a short-term corrective retracement toward this level, currently around $98K, remains a likely scenario, as the market consolidates and searches for fresh demand. The $98K zone stands as a critical support range. A strong rebound from this level could confirm it as a solid foundation and potentially ignite a fresh uptrend, aiming for a new all-time high.