XRP ETF Nears Approval With 95% Odds — October 17 Marks Key Date

• Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have stated on X that XRP now holds a 95% ETF approval chance, up from 75%.
• If the XRP spot ETF gets the green light, analysts expect XRP may surprise us with a rally ranging from $3 to $10.

Bitwise was the first to leap when it filed an S‑1 registration for a spot Ripple(XRP) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and argued that XRP should not be classified as a security. Just days later, on October 8, Canary Capital followed suit, submitting its own S‑1 filing and marking the second official attempt to bring an XRP ETF to market.

Fast forward to June, and optimism has reached a new high. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently increased their approval confidence for a U.S. spot XRP ETF to 95%, up from their earlier estimate of 75%. Seyffart noted that,

The timing of these approvals/launches is more uncertain. It could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two. Or it could be something that waits until October or later. Matter of when, not if.

He clarified that this high probability applies only to those asset managers who’ve submitted 19b‑4 filings to the SEC through a registered exchange.

The momentum didn’t stop there. In January, a wave of new filings came in, with ProShares and CoinShares both submitting multiple ETF applications. Then, on January 30, Grayscale made a strategic move by filing a 19b‑4 amendment to convert its existing XRP Trust into a spot ETF, which triggered a 240-day SEC review period. In March, the SEC formally began reviewing all these applications.

Franklin Templeton’s ETF decision deadline was extended to June 17, and the SEC recently extended it again later in 2025. ProShares asked for theirs to be finalized by June 25. The clock is now ticking toward a deadline: October 17, the final decision date for Grayscale’s ETF filing.

Other key decision windows fall between October 18 and 25, covering additional players like WisdomTree and CoinShares. As we edge closer to these dates, the XRP community is watching closely, anticipating what could be a landmark moment for Ripple and the future of crypto ETFs.

What’s Fueling the Optimism?

As CNF recently reported, Canada officially approved the first-ever spot XRP Exchange Traded Fund, listed under the ticker XRPP on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Just like other spot ETFs, XRPP offers investors direct exposure to XRP’s price movements, without requiring them actually to own or store the cryptocurrency themselves.

This milestone is important, especially given XRP’s controversial history. Legal battles with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have placed the token under a cloud of regulatory uncertainty for years.

That cloud is beginning to lift. Ripple’s recent settlement and the decision to delay any appeals until August 15 have brought a new sense of clarity to the situation. A district court is now reviewing a proposed $50 million settlement deal, down from an initial $125 million, and could also decide to lift the longstanding injunction against Ripple.

While nothing is final yet, these developments hint at a possible positive resolution for Ripple and the XRP community.

Despite this legal progress, XRP’s market performance has been sluggish. Over the last 24 hours, the token dropped 1.38%, trading around $2.13, and it’s down 12.4% over the past 30 days.