Bitcoin Heads for Rare Red Year as October Crash Still Haunts Markets

Bitcoin is shaping up to end the year in the red, which will be just the fourth year in history it has done so.

Bitcoin is currently down 7% so far YTD, and it has only ended the year in the red in 2014, 2018, and 2022. All three were bear market years, and 2025 isn’t, leading analysts and experts to ask: Is something broken?

Many are specifically pointing at October 10, which saw BTC prices crash 10%, losing over $12,000 in a day or so in the industry’s largest leverage flush.

“WTF happened on October 10th? Exchanges are saying they are fine. Market Makers are saying they are fine,” asked analyst ‘Max Crypto’ who added that crypto prices feel like a few big entities are selling non-stop.

“This has really started to feel like a Luna event, when everyone said that we are fine, and it ended horribly.”

WTF happened on October 10th?

Exchanges are saying they are fine.
MMs are saying they are fine.

And the crypto prices feel like a few big entities are selling non-stop.

This has really started to feel like Luna event, when everyone said that we are fine and it ended horribly. pic.twitter.com/D9RNefKgT7

— Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) December 23, 2025

Did October 10 Break Crypto?

“Oct. 10 was the pivotal moment to where we sit today, and the overhang of ‘Crashtober’ still haunts us,” said investor George Bodine.

The October 10 calamity occurred coincident with record runs in gold and silver, both of which did have momentum, he said before adding, “I have never seen the fundamentals behind Bitcoin as strong as this year.”

“October 10 wasn’t just ugly – it exposed problems that still haven’t been fixed, which is why the market feels so bad even now,” said crypto analyst Scott Melker.

Liquidity remains severely compromised, and market makers have become more cautious, not less, making this worse than before, he said.

Additionally, altcoins show no genuine recovery, bleeding whenever Bitcoin weakens without attracting new capital. This indicates money is exiting the market entirely rather than rotating between assets, contrary to what healthy market behavior would show.

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“October 10 broke something psychologically. It reminded everyone that this market can still just… fall apart. And once that realization sets in, behavior changes for a long time.”

Until liquidity, participation, and conviction come back together, rallies will feel fragile, and selloffs will feel fast, he said.

Is It All That Bad?

Analyst ‘CrediBULL Crypto’ opined that the event didn’t break anything.

“It was a massive deleveraging event, however, and we can see aggregate OI [open interest] has been bleeding ever since – which means confidence in positioning via perps has definitely taken a hit.”

They said that if the price bottoms in this region and continues to rise, “we will see traders come back to the market like they always do, and OI will begin to rise once more.”

Less leverage in the system is not a bad thing, “as it simply means this next rally is even more sustainable than the prior one.”

Bitcoin was trading down on the day, struggling to maintain momentum above $87,000 at the time of writing.