Fighter jets over Tehran and Bushehr caused explosions, according to Iranian media. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday.
Operation Epic Fury, the US-Israeli campaign, maintains pressure on Iran. The June 30 market shows traders slightly increasing odds due to military escalation. The market remains below the 20% odds from a week ago.
This market sees $59,602 in USDC traded daily. The order book depth requires $195,733 to move the market 5 points. A recent 1-point spike occurred at 7:21 PM. The depth suggests institutional interest, but small price changes indicate caution among traders.
Increased air operations over key Iranian sites indicate ongoing pressure. However, the slow climb in odds and significant depth suggest no imminent collapse. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30—a 7x payout. Traders need to anticipate substantial escalation or internal fracture within 88 days for this bet to pay off.
Watch for signals like Mojtaba Khamenei’s unexpected appearances or absences, IRGC fractures, or the Assembly of Experts convening. These could indicate deeper instability and shift market odds significantly.
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