September to Mark Bitcoin’s Cyclical Low, Bull Run Nears Final Stages: Bitfinex Alpha

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a corrective phase for roughly three weeks amid declining demand and rising selling pressure. Although September has historically been a weak month for the digital asset, analysts believe the market could hit its bottom for this downturn as the month progresses.

A weekly report by the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed that September has marked cyclical lows in post-halving years. These lows are usually followed by a rally into the fourth quarter – these surges often mark the end of bull runs and the onset of bear cycles. So, September provides the foundation for renewed rallies into October and November.

BTC to Hit Cyclical Low in September

BTC recently fell below $110,000, even slipping under its January 2025 high of $109,590. This range served as resistance for at least six months before bitcoin broke it in July. As BTC has ended a third consecutive week of decline from the $123,640 all-time high (ATH), market participants wonder if this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a deeper correction.

Amid the speculation, Bitfinex analysts have identified some factors that suggest the market is in the late stages of its corrective phase. Notably, pullbacks from cycle highs average around 17% peak-to-trough before new ATHs are eventually reached. With BTC already 13% down from its recent ATH, there may still be a little room for more downside. Regardless, BTC is nearing the upper limit of this corrective phase.

To substantiate its claims, Bitfinex cited the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap. This metric shows where supply is concentrated across BTC acquisition prices, revealing the levels at which large portions of coins were last moved. This, in turn, highlights natural support and resistance zones.

Altcoins Experience Pullback

Currently, BTC is trading at $110,000, a level below the lower boundary of a gap created when its price rallied sharply without substantial supply. These gaps have historically been revisited and filled – this is why analysts have been expecting the ongoing drawdown.

The gap has been gradually getting filled, with the ongoing retracement triggering the redistribution of supply at discounted prices. With a dense supply clutter between $93,000 and $110,000, the market would require either a wave of acute short-term sell pressure or an extended demand pause for a deeper correction to occur.

Meanwhile, altcoins have not escaped unscathed in this drawdown. The altcoin sector endured a challenging week, with most of the top ten major assets experiencing significant declines in value. Ether (ETH), for one, recently hit an ATH, but tumbled afterward, despite persistent accumulation from institutions and exchange-traded funds.