Key Takeaways
- Mena identified $70,000 and $74,000 as recovery thresholds for bitcoin.
- Losing support near $69,000 could expose $65,000 to another test.
- October producer prices rose 0.3%, while annual producer inflation reached 6.5%.
Strategist Maps Bitcoin’s Recovery Toward $90,000
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at crypto investment product issuer 21shares, assessed bitcoin’s rebound in commentary supplied directly to Bitcoin.com News on Nov. 13. The 21shares research strategist described bitcoin as finding support around $69,000 and retesting $70,000 following the producer price index, or PPI, release. The index measures prices received by U.S. producers.
“We view this bounce as an encouraging sign that buyers are stepping in as selling pressure eases, though a sustained recovery will require bitcoin to reclaim $70K and then $74K,” Mena stated. “Bitcoin is showing immense strength, although it may not seem so, setting higher lows that are ~20% above its $57K cycle low.” He further shared:
“Holding $69K would help establish a base for that recovery, while a break below it would leave $65K vulnerable to another test.”
The higher lows Mena described are successive price troughs above earlier ones, measured against the $57,000 cycle low he cited.
PPI Offers Relief as Annual Inflation Accelerates
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that producer prices rose 0.3% in October, slowing from September’s revised 1.4% increase. Annual producer inflation nevertheless accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%, reaching its highest rate since November 2022. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices increased 0.5% monthly and 4.9% annually.
Before the inflation release, bitcoin had rebounded from an intraday low near $67,500 to nearly reclaim $70,000 soon after the report release. That recovery followed a decline through $74,000, $72,000, and $70,000. Trading volume during the rebound remained modest compared with the preceding selling. The price of bitcoin recently sat below $69,000 as the recovery cooled once more.
The rebound also followed a substantial liquidation wave, with crypto liquidations reaching $1.62 billion over a 24-hour period. Bullish positions accounted for $1.46 billion of that total. Forced selling added pressure as leveraged positions were unwound across bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Institutional demand remained under pressure, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recording $284.1 million in net outflows on Nov. 12, their sixth consecutive session of withdrawals. Blackrock’s IBIT accounted for $203.8 million of the total. Those redemptions preceded the PPI release and Mena’s assessment of renewed buying.
August Rally Informs the Longer-Term Outlook
In technical analysis of bitcoin’s price movements, support marks an area where buying could slow a decline; resistance marks an area where selling could impede an advance. From $69,000, reaching $87,000 would require approximately a 26% gain, while $90,000 would represent about a 30% advance.
The strategist had previously outlined a potential move toward $90,000 in commentary supplied Oct. 14, when he identified $85,000 as resistance. His latest outlook retained that possibility after the subsequent sell-off and drew on seasonality, or recurring performance patterns during particular periods of the year.
Explaining that outlook, Mena said: “It is also worth remembering how quickly bitcoin can move once momentum turns. Bitcoin’s late-August surge from roughly $62K to $78K in just three days, a 25% move, shows how quickly upside momentum can return.” He continued:
“A recovery toward $87K and an eventual push above $90K could still be in the cards, especially when seasonality is factored in, as Q4 has historically been the best quarter for bitcoin, averaging over 61% returns.”
“For now, defending support and reclaiming the levels lost this week are the first steps,” the strategist concluded.
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