Bitcoin Price up 26% Since SpaceX Debut as Anthropic IPO Looms

A day after Anthropic—the giant AI company behind the Claude chatbot—filed for an initial public offering (IPO), bitcoin (BTC) was essentially unchanged, trading near $80,000.

On the filing day itself, U.S. stocks rose while bitcoin treasury giant Strategy fell. The dominant narrative is that the IPO will attract capital that might otherwise flow into bitcoin, complicating the recovery of the recently declining top crypto asset. BTC is down more than 5% in the last month.

Bitcoin Price Fell, Bounced, Fell and Rallied

The market saw similar narratives around the SpaceX IPO. As Bitcoin.com News reported at the time, market participants cited the upcoming SpaceX IPO and speculation about potential OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs as reasons for the market downturn. In June, days before the SpaceX debut, Strategy’s Michael Saylor was also discussing capital rotation into AI.

SpaceX shares began trading on June 12, rising about 19% above the IPO price as the company surpassed a $2 trillion market capitalization. Now, crypto traders have priced Anthropic’s potential IPO at nearly $1.9 trillion. For context, bitcoin’s current market capitalization stands near $1.6 trillion.

Bitcoin fell before the SpaceX IPO, briefly bounced after the trading began, and then hit new lows on June 30, closing near $58,500. From that low, bitcoin has since risen about 37%, gaining roughly 26% since the SpaceX IPO. Meanwhile, SpaceX shares have fallen 9% since their market debut, but still remain 9% above their IPO price.

Bitcoin’s price action before the SpaceX IPO was also affected by ETF outflows, Strategy’s bitcoin sale, and liquidations of long positions. These factors are another reminder that bitcoin responds to multiple market forces. The growing Anthropic IPO mania is just one of them, but it could still become an important one short-term.

Crypto Industry Helps Drive Rotation From Bitcoin

Additionally, crypto exchanges are offering synthetic exposure to Anthropic, as they did with SpaceX. Before the SpaceX IPO, exchanges listed pre-IPO perpetual futures, or contracts that track a company’s expected share price without involving actual shares. They are now doing the same with Anthropic.

Separately, several exchanges offered tokenized SpaceX shares intended to be backed by real IPO shares. However, they canceled the products and refunded users on listing day after failing to obtain the shares.

Now, Anthropic warns that “Any sale or transfer of Anthropic stock, or any interest in Anthropic stock, that has not been approved by our Board of Directors is void.” The company does not specifically mention perpetual futures.

Different Macro Environments

Besides the similarities with the SpaceX IPO, the bitcoin market now operates in a somewhat different macroeconomic environment. Some of the developments discussed in the first half of the year are now becoming reality.

Back then, the Federal Reserve was holding rates steady, while markets increasingly priced in a rate hike. The Fed raised rates in September, although bitcoin rallied afterward. On Wednesday, Oct. 28, the Fed will announce its next decision, with markets largely expecting rates to remain unchanged.

Inflation peaked around the SpaceX IPO, with May’s annual CPI reading of 4.2% marking the highest level since 2023, before easing in the following months. In September, inflation rose again to 3.7%, driven largely by energy prices.

During the SpaceX IPO window, in late June, hopes for a deal to end the U.S.-Israel war on Iran pushed Brent crude to its lowest level since before the conflict. The conflict escalated again in July, and October brought new reports of possible attacks on Iran, while Brent crude surged above $116 per barrel.

The bond market is also in worse shape than it was in June, with yields now much higher.

Political Impact and ETF Flows

The approaching U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 could further dampen activity in the bitcoin market, as some investors choose to wait and see before making buy or sell decisions.

Meanwhile, although outflows from bitcoin ETFs dominated in June, inflows have since recovered. They have remained mostly flat during “Uptober,” however, putting the month on track to diverge from its historical averages once again.

To summarize, SpaceX went public amid falling oil prices, easing inflation, and a Fed holding rates steady. Yet bitcoin soon hit new lows before rallying by double digits, even as macroeconomic conditions continued to deteriorate.

Therefore, while these juggernaut IPOs could affect the bitcoin price short-term, the top cryptocurrency by market cap has repeatedly shown that it can move in the opposite direction to what its broader environment might suggest. This applies to both rallies and downturns. Now, another test for bitcoin appears to be brewing.

“Hard Asset,” According to Whom?

Nik Bhatia, founder of The Bitcoin Layer, argued in a video commentary released Monday that the Anthropic IPO filing, alongside SpaceX’s $40 billion debt raise and Meta’s estimated $95 billion equity raise, showed companies scrambling for the last available liquidity before funding windows narrowed further.

According to Bhatia, tightening credit and liquidity conditions for risk assets form the backdrop. Investors will prioritize safer assets with visible cash flows over speculative startups that might struggle to refinance as defaults rise.

“These are some red flags that I believe valuations are starting to come down; earnings growth is also starting to top out,” Bhatia said.

Therefore, bitcoin is once again being tested on whether bitcoiners are alone in viewing it as a hard asset outside the struggling traditional credit system or whether that view is gaining broader support, making the Anthropic IPO just another blip on the long-term bitcoin price chart.

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