Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces a Reality Check: Cycle Conditions Remain Subdued

Bitcoin was rejected at $80,000 again, and subdued cycle indicators suggest investors shouldn’t mistake the latest recovery for a lasting reversal.

Bitcoin staged a sharp rebound after Wednesday’s election-driven selloff, when uncertainty over the US midterm results sent the crypto asset tumbling to nearly $75,600, its lowest level in almost seven weeks. It tapped $81,000 but then lost all the gained traction, dumping to $76,000.

But the new data shows that the pullback may not be over just yet. CryptoQuant flagged that certain indicators are nowhere near the extreme conditions often seen around major turning points.

Further Downside Risk

The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has dropped to 15.8% on its 30-day moving average, putting it in the Watch / Mild Pressure zone. BTC is roughly 46% below its previous all-time high, which is still a substantial drawdown, but the index remains well below levels linked to an active or extreme cycle phase.

Looking back, the 2021 cycle saw sharp spikes in the index as the crypto asset approached its peak and volatility picked up. Similar surges appeared during the 2024-2025 advance. This time, things look different. Cycle intensity has eased considerably, which was indicative of reduced pressure, though CryptoQuant said that this doesn’t mean downside risk has disappeared.

The Cycle Extreme Oscillator tells a similar story. Its 30-day moving average is sitting close to the bottom of its historical range and remains well below the 1.0 threshold. Previous cycles saw readings above that level during pronounced market moves, including early 2021 and several phases in 2024-2025. The analytics firm stated that there’s no visible “comparable increase”, which therefore leaves “little evidence of a decisive cycle-extreme signal.”

“The indicators suggest Bitcoin is in a corrective, subdued phase rather than at a confirmed cycle bottom. Further consolidation, or another downward leg, remains possible before a durable recovery develops.”

It also added that cooling cycle conditions should not be mistaken for a confirmed market reversal.

Crypto analyst Bren also sees Bitcoin falling back to its $56,000 bear-market low before making a stronger recovery. He expects a bullish first half of 2027 and believes the crypto asset could go on to set a new all-time high that year.

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Institutional Side Of Things

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first inflows of November on the 4th, bringing in $74.57 million. This comes after three consecutive days of outflows. October ended with over half a billion dollars in outflows, while November has so far seen another $439.61 million leave the funds.

Meanwhile, Switzerland has approved its first Bitcoin ETF open to retail investors. Unlike earlier products limited to professionals, the fund gives ordinary investors direct BTC exposure through a regulated structure without having to manage wallets or private keys themselves.