Can ETH Overcome Overhead Moving Averages?

Ethereum has continued to stabilize following its sharp correction from the yearly highs, with buyers attempting to regain control after breaking out of the long-term descending channel. While the recovery has improved the near-term outlook, ETH still faces a cluster of major resistance levels overhead that must be reclaimed before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH is consolidating just above the broader descending channel’s higher boundary that has guided price action lower for several months. Although buyers have managed to push it back toward $1.9K, the asset is still trading beneath both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently converging around the $1.95K and $2.05K levels, respectively. This continues to indicate that the broader market structure remains bearish despite the recent rebound.

The latest rally has also brought the price directly into an important horizontal resistance confluence around $1.9K to $2K. This is the first major obstacle for the buyers. A successful breakout above this region could pave the way toward the next resistance zone around $2.4K. On the downside, the key demand zone at $1.5K remains critical for ETH to build on.

The RSI has also recovered toward the neutral 50 level after previously reaching oversold conditions, suggesting bearish momentum has eased. Nevertheless, momentum has yet to shift decisively in favor of the buyers, making the reaction around the current resistance particularly important.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum recently completed a breakout from a short-term descending channel, a pattern that typically signals weakening selling pressure and the potential for a bullish continuation. The breakout has already carried the price back above the immediate support zone around $1.85K, which is now acting as the first line of defense for buyers.

ETH is currently consolidating below the $2.1K resistance area. The recent recovery has kept the price within the upper half of the broader ascending channel that has developed since early June, suggesting buyers continue to defend higher lows.

If the breakout from the short-term descending channel remains valid, Ethereum could attempt another move toward the upper boundary of the larger ascending channel near the psychological $2K region. A clean break above that level would likely strengthen bullish momentum and expose the higher resistance around $2.1K.

Conversely, losing the $1.85K support would weaken the short-term bullish structure and could trigger another decline toward the $1.75K demand zone. A breakdown below that area would invalidate the recent push and shift momentum back in favor of the sellers.

On-Chain Analysis

The active addresses chart shows that Ethereum network activity remains subdued despite the recent price recovery. Daily active addresses have stabilized around the 400K range after declining significantly from the surge seen earlier in the year, with the 30-day exponential moving average continuing to trend lower.

This divergence between activity and price suggests that the latest price rebound has not yet been accompanied by a meaningful improvement in underlying network participation. Historically, sustained bullish phases tend to coincide with expanding user activity, whereas muted address growth often reflects cautious market participation.

While the stabilization in active addresses may indicate that network activity is beginning to find a floor, a stronger increase in on-chain participation would provide additional confirmation that the current recovery is supported by improving fundamentals rather than purely technical buying. Until then, Ethereum’s recovery appears constructive but still lacks broad on-chain confirmation.