Most Significant Breakout Ahead or Another Painful Rejection?

Ethereum is trading above $2.3k as April draws to a close, ending the month in a frustratingly familiar position. It is pressing against the same $2.4k resistance zone it has now tested repeatedly since mid-March without a clean resolution. ETH sits at the threshold of what could either be its most significant breakout in months or yet another rejection at the gate.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

What has genuinely changed on the daily chart over the past four weeks is not the resistance. The $2.4k zone has held firm throughout. Yet, each recent pullback has found support at a higher level, first the $2k area, then $2.1k, and now the higher trendline of the broken channel and the 100-day moving average around $2.2k are the support elements to keep an eye on. The sequence of higher lows, sustained over multiple weeks, represents quiet accumulation building beneath a stubborn ceiling.

The RSI also remains in the high-50s, which is not the kind of momentum collapse that has preceded prior failed breakouts, but still not showing enough strength for another push toward $2.4k. If the market fails to break above the mentioned level, the 100-day moving average would be the first downside target, and if it fails to hold, the price could fall all the way back below $2k and toward the critical $1.8k area that began this mild recovery.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, a steep ascending trendline that emerged from the late-March lows is now providing dynamic support near $2.3k, keeping the short-term structure of higher lows intact. ETH is currently sitting directly on that trendline, with the RSI dropping to mid-40s following the most recent pullback from $2.4k.

At the moment, the most notable event is the trendline being tested near the $2.3k mark. Holding it keeps the bullish sequence alive and sets up another attempt at $2.4k, while a close below it opens $2.1k-$2k as the next area of interest. A breakdown of the trendline, followed by a close below the recent significant lows at $2.25k, would be the signal that a deeper pullback is coming once more.

On-Chain Analysis

Unlike Bitcoin, where funding rates have been persistently and deeply negative throughout the recent dataset, Ethereum’s funding picture is more mixed. The current reading of -0.0044 is negative, but the chart shows that ETH’s funding has been oscillating between modestly negative and modestly positive for much of April, rather than sustaining the unrelenting red bar dominance seen on Bitcoin’s equivalent chart.

This distinction matters. It suggests ETH’s derivatives market is not as aggressively short-positioned as Bitcoin’s, which means the potential short squeeze fuel that exists for BTC is less pronounced for ETH. On one hand, this reduces the risk of a violent downside flush if price breaks lower.

On the other hand, it means ETH will not benefit as dramatically from a forced short-covering cascade if the broader market rallies sharply. The more neutral funding environment reflects a market that is genuinely uncertain about ETH’s direction rather than one that is actively fighting a trend, and in that sense, the funding data is an honest mirror of the price action itself.