Multicoin Capital backs $319 HYPE target despite major risk warnings

Multicoin Capital has projected that Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could reach $319 by 2028 despite identifying several structural and market risks that could threaten its long-term outlook.

According to a new report from Multicoin Capital, the investment firm expects Hyperliquid (HYPE) to appreciate roughly fivefold from its current price near $64, based on a base-case scenario in which Hyperliquid generates about $8 billion in annual earnings by 2028 and trades at a 20-times earnings multiple.

Multicoin also disclosed that it began accumulating HYPE in February, making it one of the largest positions in its liquid fund, while adopting a three-day no-trade policy after publishing the report.

Why Multicoin believes Hyperliquid can justify a higher valuation

Much of the firm’s conviction comes from Hyperliquid’s rapid expansion during 2025. According to Multicoin, the decentralized exchange generated about $873 million in revenue from roughly $2.9 trillion in trading volume while growing its user base from around 301,000 to 923,000. During the same period, open interest climbed from approximately $2 billion to $6 billion.

Current market data cited in the report show Hyperliquid now accounts for more than 59% of decentralized perpetual futures open interest. Its outstanding open interest has also reached about $9.6 billion, exceeding that of its largest on-chain rivals combined.

Beyond decentralized markets, Multicoin argued that Hyperliquid has continued narrowing the gap with centralized exchanges. Monthly perpetual futures trading volume has reached roughly 17% of Binance’s level, while open interest stands at about 21% of Binance’s, figures the firm compared with Binance’s own early growth trajectory.

Another pillar of the investment case is HIP-3, an upgrade that allows third-party teams to launch perpetual markets tied to assets such as stocks, commodities, and equity indexes. 

According to Multicoin, open interest linked to real-world assets has already surpassed $2.9 billion, while an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract generated more than $100 million in average daily trading volume during its first week.

The report also expects options trading, prediction markets, portfolio margining, and deeper integration with HyperEVM applications to expand Hyperliquid’s revenue opportunities over the coming years. Multicoin argued these additions could help transform the platform into what it described as an “everything exchange” offering around-the-clock access to multiple asset classes.

What risks could prevent the $319 forecast

Even with its optimistic valuation, Multicoin acknowledged that several factors could derail its forecast. The report identified decentralization challenges, regulatory uncertainty, governance issues, increasing competition, and potential bad debt as the primary risks facing the protocol.

Value capture remains another reason behind the firm’s bullish outlook. According to the report, approximately 99% of Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue is used to repurchase HYPE, with those tokens effectively removed from circulation. Multicoin also noted that Hyperliquid has never raised outside capital and operates without a separate equity layer, allowing the protocol’s economics to accrue directly to token holders.

The report estimates Hyperliquid has generated about $869 million in trailing earnings for HYPE holders. Based on a token price near $63, Multicoin calculated that HYPE trades at roughly 36 times trailing earnings, or about 30 times after accounting for revenue associated with Hyperliquid’s Coinbase and USDC agreement.

Meanwhile, technical charts present a more cautious picture than the firm’s long-term forecast. On the four-hour timeframe, HYPE is forming a bearish double-top pattern, with a neckline near the $52.7 support level.

If sellers push the token below that support and confirm the pattern, the measured downside target points toward the $28.5 area, suggesting traders may continue watching technical risks alongside Multicoin’s longer-term fundamental outlook.