Strategy emerges as key swing factor for Bitcoin rally, Bitfinex says

Bitcoin has climbed above Strategy’s $75,385 average purchase price after gaining roughly 24% last week, making the company’s next treasury decision a key test for the rally, according to Bitfinex analysts.

Bitfinex analysts told crypto.news that Strategy’s treasury activity has become a key signal after the company stopped selling Bitcoin shortly before BTC broke out of its summer trading range.

The company, which remains the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, had sold BTC over several weeks to meet obligations connected to its preferred securities. Strategy then reported no purchases or sales for the week ending Aug. 16, removing a source of supply as Bitcoin prepared to move above its range.

Price action has since carried BTC above Strategy’s average acquisition cost for the first time since the company’s recent sales began. Its remaining 840,447 BTC were acquired for approximately $63.36 billion, including fees and expenses, at an average price of $75,385 per coin.

A return to accumulation would support the rally by adding corporate spot demand, according to Bitfinex. Renewed sales at higher prices, however, could place fresh supply above the market and make further gains harder to sustain.

Strategy has remained on the sidelines after raising $2B

Strategy’s latest disclosure has shown that the company remained inactive in the Bitcoin market for another week, even as BTC traded above its average purchase price.

As crypto.news reported from its filing, Strategy sold approximately 18.26 million MSTR shares between Aug. 17 and Aug. 23, raising about $2 billion through its at-the-market offering program. The company made no Bitcoin purchases or sales during the period, keeping its holdings at 840,447 BTC.

Most of the proceeds remained in cash. Strategy transferred $300 million to its existing U.S. dollar reserve, placed about $1.59 billion in a new cash account, and spent $136.4 million repurchasing roughly 1.43 million shares of its STRC perpetual preferred stock.

The transactions increased the company’s dollar reserve to $5.1 billion and took its combined cash position, including the new account, to $6.69 billion. Strategy had disclosed a reserve of about $4.8 billion one week earlier, the figure referenced in the Bitfinex report.

By continuing to raise cash without buying Bitcoin, Strategy has not yet provided the positive spot signal described by Bitfinex. The filing also showed that the company refrained from selling into BTC’s latest strength, avoiding the possible overhead pressure identified by the analysts.

Earlier activity had moved in the opposite direction. Between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million at an average price of $64,262 and used the proceeds to repurchase about 1.15 million STRC shares.

A week earlier, the company sold another 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million. Proceeds from that transaction funded $52.4 million in STRC dividends and about $52.3 million in preferred-stock repurchases.

Bitcoin needs a $73,500 retest to confirm the recovery

With Strategy’s latest filing showing no transaction, Bitfinex analysts placed greater weight on Bitcoin’s cost-basis levels and the quality of demand supporting the breakout.

“The next few weeks carry two clear signals,” the analysts said. They identified $73,500 as the average purchase price of investors who acquired BTC during the past three to six months.

According to the report, a weekly close above that level followed by a successful retest would confirm that Bitcoin has recovered from its summer range. Holding the zone would also leave recent buyers in profit, reducing the chance that a return toward their cost basis produces immediate selling.

The next important area sits near $86,500, where Bitfinex said investors who bought Bitcoin between 18 months and two years ago would reach their average break-even price. Selling from holders waiting to exit at cost could make the level a source of resistance.

On the downside, the analysts identified $64,500 as the average cost of the newest buyer group. A decline below the level would indicate that Bitcoin’s breakout had gone too far on forced purchases, according to Bitfinex, placing the previous summer range back in focus.

Bitcoin’s rally carried the asset from below $64,000 on Aug. 19 to a three-month high near $79,550. The roughly 24% weekly gain was its strongest advance since March 2023, while the move also reclaimed resistance levels around $65,000, $67,000, $70,000, and $73,500.

ETF demand must replace forced Bitcoin buying

Bitfinex described U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies with BTC on their balance sheets as the market’s two main sources of lasting demand. The analysts called the pair the “Two-Complex Spot Bid” because the measure focuses on capital that enters the market and remains invested instead of coins moving between traders.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.9 billion in net inflows during the week ending Aug. 21, including five consecutive inflow sessions. The demand offered evidence that regulated funds were buying alongside traders forced to close bearish positions.

Forced buying still accounted for much of the rally’s speed. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000, a record short-liquidation wave removed nearly $2.7 billion in bearish crypto positions over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data cited by market analysts.

Short sellers must buy an asset to close liquidated positions, which can accelerate a rally while prices are rising. Bitfinex cautioned that the effect ends once the affected positions have been closed, leaving continued gains dependent on new buyers entering through the spot market.

Onchain participation has not yet supplied clear confirmation. Bitcoin moving across the network remains near its lowest level in eight years, according to the report, indicating that activity among holders has stayed limited despite the price increase.

U.S. investors now face both BTC and MSTR signals

For U.S. investors, Strategy adds a second market signal because its common shares trade on Nasdaq under the MSTR ticker, while spot Bitcoin ETFs provide direct regulated exposure to BTC prices.

Strategy funds parts of their capital structure through U.S. securities markets, including common-stock issuance and several preferred securities. Its weekly Form 8-K disclosures to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allow investors to track Bitcoin transactions, equity sales, cash allocations, and preferred-stock repurchases.

Under a capital framework adopted in June, Strategy’s board authorized a BTC Monetization Program permitting up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to help fund its dollar reserve. The framework also included separate $1 billion repurchase authorizations for common and preferred securities, as well as provisions for dividend and interest payments.

Strategy’s new $1.59 billion cash account gives management another source of liquidity. According to the Aug. 24 filing, the money may be used for Bitcoin purchases, preferred dividends, debt obligations, or securities repurchases, though the company did not commit the funds to a specific purpose or provide a deployment timetable.