The calls for a Black Monday have fallen short so far, but this doesn’t mean that the week won’t be volatile.
After a major correction experienced in the past several days and a dip to a monthly low, bitcoin enters another potentially fluctuating week with the Fed now back in its blackout period.
Attention has shifted to Big Tech earnings, US PMI data, consumer inflation expectations, jobless claims, and developments in the oil market. Here’s what to expect for the following five days.
Tech Earnings and Oil Shake
This week’s macro calendar is lighter than last week’s CPI- and PPI-heavy schedule, but several events could still move BTC indirectly through risk sentiment, bond yields, and expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 27 and 28. Perhaps the biggest market event comes on Wednesday when Meta and Tesla will report earnings, alongside IBM and several other major companies.
The impact on crypto could stem from the recent sell-off, driven by concerns about AI spending and technology valuations, which shows similar developments aren’t isolated in the current market environment. The Nasdaq 100 just posted its worst week since April 2025, while semiconductor stocks plummeted. Weak guidance from Meta and Tesla could renew the risk-off trade and spill over into BTC.
The EIA’s weekly petroleum report is due the same day, adding oil as another key variable. Crude prices have become increasingly important because higher energy costs have helped push inflation upward. A renewed oil surge could revive fears that the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer. This is highly unfavorable for the crypto market, as we have witnessed lately.
Key Events This Week:
1. September Pending Home Sales data – Tuesday
2. SpaceX, $SPCX, Reports Earnings – Tuesday
3. Tesla, $TSLA, and Meta, $META, Report Earnings – Wednesday
4. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
5. October MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
6. October MI Inflation Expectations data – Friday
~15% of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 18, 2026
Friday in Focus
Thursday brings weekly jobless claims, one of the few fresh labor-market indicators available before the Fed’s next meeting. The direct impact on crypto will likely be minimal, but all eyes will be on Friday as S&P Global publishes its October flash manufacturing and services PMIs.
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This report will offer an early look at growth and, more importantly, whether businesses continue to face elevated price pressures. Later that day, the University of Michigan will release its final October consumer sentiment and inflation-expectations figures, with preliminary data showing one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.7% from 4.6%. Five-year expectations also rose from 3.4% to 3.5%.
This could be particularly significant for markets after last week’s CPI and PPI data showed inflation remains elevated.
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